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| A description of the new SIPS v2.32 | SIP v2.32 incorporates automated forecast updates, including warnings and forecasts, of JB2006 and SOLARFLARE parameters useful for satellite and communication operational users. |
Tobiska, W.K., "Mitigating orbit planning, satellite operations, and communication surprises from adverse space weather", AIAA-2008-0453, 2008 | SET_AIAA_2008.pdf |
| New SOLAR2000 v2.30 capabilities for operations | An overview of the major improvements of the SOLAR2000 model (and the new SOLARFLARE component), addressing user needs for high time- and spatially-resolved irradiances, historical 3-hour data, improved proxies, and new models and datasets. | Tobiska, W.K., "SOLAR2000 v2.30 and SOLARFLARE v1.01: New Capabilities for Space System Operations", American Institute of Aeronautics and Astronautics, Inc., 2007. | SET_AIAA_2007.pdf |
| Solar and Geomagnetic operational models | A description of the EXPI/HAF model and S2K OP models for Space Situational Awareness | Tobiska, W.K., Fry, C.D., "Solar and Geomagnetic Space Environment Specification for operations", AIAA-2006-0471, 2006 | SET_AIAA_2006.pdf |
| X-ray flare evolution model | An overview of a new flare evolution model for predicting the rise, timing and magnitude of X-ray flares | Tobiska, W.K., "Systems-Level Space Environment Specification for Satellite and Ground System Operations", AIAA-2005-0069, 2005. | SET_AIAA_2005.pdf |
| SOLAR2000 model description | A comprehensive description of the SOLAR2000 model assumptions, basis, and formulation. Seminal paper for SOLAR2000. Presented at the 1999 Space Weather Week in Boulder, CO | Tobiska, W.K, T. Woods, F. Eparvier, R. Viereck, L. Floyd, D. Bouwer, G. Rottman, and O.R. White, "The SOLAR2000 empirical solar irradiance model and forecast tool," J. Atm. Solar Terr. Phys., 62, 1233-1250, 2000. | JASTP_2000_SOLAR2000.pdf |
| SOLAR2000 v2.24 status | A description of upgrades to SOLAR2000 from v1.24 to v2.24. Presented at the 2004 COSPAR meeting in Paris, France. This is the recommended publication for the most recent SOLAR2000 overview. | Tobiska, W.K. and S.D. Bouwer, "New Developments in SOLAR2000 for Space Research and Operations," Adv. Space Res., 37, 347-358, 2006. | JASR_SOLAR2000_2006.pdf |
| SOLAR2000 v1.24 status |
A description of upgrades to SOLAR2000 from v1.03 to v1.24. Presented at the 2002 COSPAR meeting in Houston, TX. |
Tobiska, W.K., "SOLAR2000 irradiances for climate change, aeronomy, and space system engineering," Adv. Space Res., 34, 1736-1746, 2004. | |
| Integrated spectrum S(t) description | A description of the use of E10.7 and the integrated spectrum variable, S(t). Reply to J. Lean comment |
Tobiska, W.K. "Reply," J. Geophys. Res., 107, A2, SIA 5-1 - SIA 5-2, 2002. |
JGR_2002_Reply.pdf |
| SOLAR2000 v1.03 status | A summary of the development status of SOLAR2000 v1.03. Presentation at the 1999 TIGER meeting in St. Petersburg Russia | Tobiska, W. K, "Status of the SOLAR2000 solar irradiance model," Phys. Chem. Earth, 25, (5-6), 383-386, 2000. | TIGER_1999_S2K_status.pdf |
| SOLAR2000 PROXIES AND APPLICATIONS | |||
| JB2006 solar indices | A description of the JB2006 solar indices F10, S10, M10 | Tobiska, W.K., S.D. Bouwer, and B.R. Bowman, "The development of new solar indices for use in thermospheric density modeling," J. Atm. Solar Terr. Phys., 70, 803-819, 2008 | JB2006_JASTP_2008_803.pdf |
| Improved thermospheric modeling | The Selection and Development of New Solar Indices for Atmospheric Heating | Tobiska, W.K., S.D. Bouwer, and B.R. Bowman, "The development of new solar indices for use in thermospheric density modeling," AIAA, Keysone, 2006 | SET_AIAA_K_06_recD.pdf |
| Aviation communication and satellite orbit operations | A description of SIP v2_32, with automated forecast updates of JB2006 and SOLARFLARE parameters useful for satel- lite and communication users |
Tobiska, W.K, "Mitigating Aviation Communication and Satellite Orbit Operations Surprises from Adverse Space Weather", AMS, 2008 | SET_AMS_2008.pdf |
| SOLARFLARE model v1.00 | A description of operational flare evolution forecasts | Tobiska, W.K. and S.D. Bouwer, "Solar flare evolution model for operational users," IES2005 Proceedings, ed. J.M. Goodman, in press, 2005 | SET_IES_2005.pdf |
| Solar inputs for precision orbit determination | A description of updated and new solar inputs for precision orbit determination | Tobiska, W.K., "Advances in solar inputs for precision orbit determination," AAS/AIAA Astrodynamics Specialist Conference, August, 2005 | AAS_05-252.pdf |
| X-ray background index and flare predictions, and ISO solar irradiance standards | A report on the development of a flare evolution model and a report on the ongoing development of the ISO 21348 "Process for Determining Solar Irradiances" standard. | Tobiska, W.K., "Systems-Level Space Environment Specification for Satellite and Ground System Operations", American Institute of Aeronautics and Astronautics, Inc., 2005 | AIAA_2005_0069.pdf |
| SOLAR2000 Professional Grade | A description of 2nd Generation forecasting through SOLAR2000 | Tobiska, W.K., "Second Generation Space Environment Forecasting for satellite and ground system operations," J. Spacecraft Rock., in preparation, 2004. | AIAA-2004-1078.pdf |
| Strategy for improving orbit decay modeling | ESTEC proposal summary between ISTI and SET | Pardini, C., W.K. Tobiska, and L. Anselmo, "Pilot service for improving satellite re-entry predictions and orbital decay modeling," ESA Space Weather Workshop: Space Weather Applications Pilot Project, 16-18 December 2002, ESTEC, Noordwijk, The Netherlands. | sww_isti.pdf |
| Validation of 72-hour forecasting | A validation study of the 72-hour forecasting algorithm. Presented at the 2003 AIAA Aerospace Sciences meeting in Reno, NV. | Tobiska, W.K., "Forecasting of space environment parameters for satellite and ground system operations," J. Spacecraft Rock., in preparation, 2003. | AIAA_2003_5829.pdf |
| 6 EUV integrated irradiance proxies description | A description of new integrated irradiance proxies. Presented at the 2002 TIGER virtual meeting on the internet. |
Tobiska, W.K., "New developments
in solar irradiance proxies for operational space weather," in Fourth
Thermospheric/Ionospheric Geospheric Research (TIGER) Symposium Internet,
June 10-14, 2002, http://www.ipm.fraunhofer.de/ |
TIGER_2002_proxies.pdf |
| EUV hemispheric power, Peuv | A comparative study of the auroral hemispheric power and the EUV hemispheric power over solar cycle time scales. | Knipp, D.J, T. Welliver, M.G. McHarg, F.K. Chun, W.K. Tobiska, and D. Evans, "Climatology of extreme upper atmospheric heating events," Adv. Space Research, in press, 2002. | COSPAR200222nov.pdf |
| 72-hour forecast for Earth atmosphere drivers | A description of the 72-hour forecast of solar, geomagnetic, and atmosphere dynamics. Presented at the 2002 AIAA Astrodynamics Specialist Conference in Monterey, CA. | Tobiska, W.K., "E10.7 use for global atmospheric density forecasting," J. Spacecraft Rock., in preparation, 2002. | AIAA_2002_4892.pdf |
| Operational forecast E10.7 | An overview of operational E10.7. Presented at the 2002 AIAA Aerospace Sciences meeting in Reno, NV. | Tobiska, W.K., "Forecast E10.7 for Improved LEO Satellite Operations," J. Spacecraft Rock., Vol. 40, (3), 405-410 2003. | JSR_2003.pdf |
| Comparative study of EUV data including SOLAR2000 | An overview of solar EUV and X-ray irradiance variations including SOLAR2000. | Woods, T., L. Acton, S. Bailey, F. Eparvier, H. Garcia, D. Judge, J. Lean, D. McMullin, G. Schmidtke, S. Solomon, K. Tobiska, and R. Viereck, "Solar extreme ultraviolet and X-ray irradiance variations," AGU Monograph, in press, 2002. | (contact T. Woods) |
| SOLAR2000 derivation and integrated spectrum S(t) | A description of SOLAR2000 derivation details and its production of the integrated solar spectrum, S(t). Presented at the 2000 COSPAR meeting in Warsaw, Poland. | Tobiska, W.K., "Variability in the TSI from Irradiances Shortward of Lyman-alpha," Adv. Space Research, 29 (12), 1969-1974, 2002. | ASR_2002.pdf |
| Operational Polar HF communication for commercial air | A strategic view of implementing a real-time polar HF nowcast and forecast capability that improves commercial aviation communication links in polar routes. Presented at the 2002 IES meeting in Alexandria, VA | Tobiska, W.K., G. Cameron, G. Davenport, J. Goodman, G. Hand, V. Papitashvili, X. Pi, "Improved polar HF propagation using nowcast and forecast space weather parameters," 10th International Ionospheric Effects Symposium, May 7-9, 2002, ed J.M. Goodman, pp 364-371. | IES_2002_Polar_HF.pdf |
| E10.7 derivation and validation | A description of the rationale, application, users, and derivation of the E10.7 integrated EUV irradiance proxy. | Tobiska, W. K., "Validating the Solar EUV Proxy, E10.7," J. Geophys.Res., 106, A12, 29969-29978, 2001. | JGR_2001.pdf |
| SOLAR2000 PRECURSOR MODELS AND RESEARCH | |||
| NOAA Mg II | The NOAA Mg II core-to-wing ratio proxy derivation and long-term data set used by SOLAR2000. | Viereck , R., L. Puga, D. McMullin, D. Judge, M. Weber, and W.K. Tobiska, "The Mg II Index: A Proxy for Solar EUV," Geophys. Res. Lett., 28 (7), 1343-1346, 2001. | GRL_2001.pdf |
| 5 solar cycle composite Lyman-alpha | Composite Lyman-alpha for 5 solar cycles calibrated to the UARS data. | Woods, T. N., W. K. Tobiska, G. J. Rottman, and J. R. Worden, "Improved solar Lyman alpha irradiance modeling from 1947 through 1999 based on UARS observations," J. Geophys.Res., 105 (A12), 27195-27215, 2000. | JGR_2000.pdf |
| EUV97 model description | A description of the EUV97 solar EUV empirical model. | Tobiska, W.K. and F.G. Eparvier, "EUV97: Improvements to EUV irradiance modeling in the soft X-rays and FUV," Solar Phys., 177, 147-159, 1998. | SP_1998.pdf |
| Two solar cycle Lyman-alpha | Two solar cycles of Lyman-alpha calibrated to UARS data. | Tobiska, W.K., W.R. Pryor, and J.M. Ajello, "Solar hydrogen Lyman-alpha variation during solar cycles 21 and 22," Geophys. Res. Lett., 24 (9), 1123-1126, 1997. | GRL_1997.pdf |
| Ionospheric data and model comparison | Comparison of radar data with ionospheric models using modeled solar flux | Buonsanto, M.J., P.G. Richards, W.K. Tobiska, S.C. Solomon, Y.-K. Tung, and J.A. Fennelly, "Ionospheric electron densities calculated using different EUV flux models and cross sections: Comparison with radar data," J. Geophys. Res., 100 (A8), 14569-14580, 1995. | JGR_1995.pdf |
| SOLRAD-11 soft X-rays | SOLRAD-11 soft X-rays data reconstruction and analysis. | Tobiska, W.K., "Modeled soft X-ray solar irradiances," Solar Phys., 152, 207-215, 1994. | |
| San Marco ASSI and EUV91 | San Marco ASSI data and EUV91 model output compared. | Tobiska, W.K., G. Schmidtke, H. Doll, T.N. Woods, J. Worden, and S. Chakrabarti, "Comparison of San Marco ASSI solar EUV and EUV91 model," Adv. Space Research, 14 (1), 73-84, 1994. | ASR_1994.pdf |
| San Marco ASSI data | A study of the solar EUV flux variations from San Marco ASSI. | Tobiska, W.K., S. Chakrabarti, G. Schmidtke, and H. Doll, "Comparative Solar EUV Flux for the San Marco ASSI," Adv. Space Research, 13 (1), 255-259, 1993. | ASR_1993.pdf |
| Solar cycle 21 periodicities for 12 solar indices | A study of the time-varying and quasi-stationary properties of photospheric, chromospheric, and coronal indices | Bouwer, S.D., "Periodicities of Solar Irradiance and Solar Activity Indices, II", Solar Physics, 142, 365-389, 1992 | SolarPhys_periods_1992.pdf |
| E-F1 Ionosphere data and model comparison | Comparison of radar data with E-F1 ionosphere models using EUV91 modeled solar flux | Buonsanto, M.J, S.C. Solomon, and W.K. Tobiska, "Comparison of measured and modeled solar EUV flux and its effect on the E-F1 region ionosphere," J. Geophys. Res., 97 (A7), 10513-10524, 1992. | JGR_1992b.pdf |
| EUV91 model description | A description of the EUV91 model and its derivation. Presented at 1990 COSPAR in The Hague, Netherlands. | Tobiska, W.K., "Revised Solar Extreme Ultraviolet Flux Model," J. Atm. Terr. Phys., 53 (11/12), 1005-1018, 1991 | JASTP_1991.pdf |
| Solar cycle 21 irradiance and proxy periodicities | An FFT analysis of 5 solar irradiance and proxy periodicities. | Pap, J., W.K. Tobiska, and S.D. Bouwer, "Periodicities of solar irradiance and solar activity indices, I," Solar Physics, 129, 165-189, 1990. | SP_1990.pdf |
| SERF2 model description | A description of the SERF2 model and its derivation. | Tobiska, W.K. and C.A. Barth, "A Solar EUV Flux Model," J. Geophys. Res., 95, 8243-8251, 1990. | JGR_1990.pdf |
| F10.7 and Lyman-alpha comparison | The original work that demonstrated F10.7 differs from chromospheric Lyman-alpha during solar minimum conditions | Barth, C.A., W.K. Tobiska, G.J. Rottman, and O.R. White, "Comparison of 10.7 cm radio flux with SME solar Lyman alpha flux," Geophys. Res. Lett., 17 (5), 571-574, 1990. | GRL_1990.pdf |
| Solar cycle 21 EUV periodicities | A study of solar chromospheric and coronal emissions and their variations during solar cycle 21, including the long-term periodicities of evolving and decaying active regions. | Tobiska, W.K. and S.D. Bouwer, "Intermediate-term Variations of Chromospheric and Coronal Solar Flux During High Solar Cycle 21 Activity," Geophys. Res. Lett., 16, 779- 782, 1989. | GRL_1989.pdf |
| Predicted SME satellite orbit decay | An overview study of predicted solar flux using Jacchia 1971 model and the SME satellite orbit decay. | Tobiska, W.K., R.D. Culp, C.A. Barth, "Predicted Solar Cycle Twenty-two 10.7 cm Flux and Satellite Orbit Decay," J. Astron. Sci., 35, 419-433, 1987. | JAS_1987.pdf |
| REVIEWS | |||
| Review of the TIGER program | TIGER symposium held at COSPAR 2004 in Paris France. | Schmidtke, G., F.G. Eparvier, S.C. Solomon, W.K. Tobiska, T.N. Woods, "The TIGER (thermospheric-ionospheric geospheric research) program: Introduction", J. Adv. Sp. Res., 37, 194-198, 2006. | JASR_TIGER_2006.pdf |
| 1999 EUV measurement and model review | Review of EUV measurement and modeling activity for the TIGER Symposium. Presented at 1999 TIGER meeting in St. Petersburg, Russia. | Tobiska, W. K., "Measurement and modeling of solar EUV/UV radiation," Phys. Chem. Earth, 25 (5-6), 371-374, 2000. | TIGER_EUV_review.pdf |
| 1994 EUV measurement and model review | Overview of EUV measurements and modeling. Presented at 1994 COSPAR meeting in Washington, DC. | Tobiska, W.K., "Current status of solar EUV measurements and modeling," Adv. Space Research, 18 (3), 3-10, 1996. | ASR_1996.pdf |
| 1993 EUV measurement and model review | General literature review of solar EUV measurements and modeling to 1992. | Tobiska, W.K., "Recent solar extreme ultraviolet irradiance observations and modeling: A review," J. Geophys. Res., 98, 18879-18893, 1993. | JGR_1993.pdf |
| 1992 EUV measurement and model review | Overview of EUV measurements and modeling. Presented at 1992 SOLERS22 meeting in Boulder, CO. | Tobiska, W.K.," A brief history of empirical modeling of the solar EUV spectral irradiance," in Proceedings of the Workshop on the Solar Electromagnetic Radiation Study for Solar Cycle 22, ed. R.F. Donnelly, NOAA/SEL, Boulder, 338-353, 1992. | SOLERS22_1992.pdf |
| 1991 EUV irradiance variations review | General literature review of solar EUV modeling to 1991 including SME-based models. | Simon, P.C. and W.K. Tobiska, "Solar EUV irradiance variations: A review," J. Geomag. Geoelectr., 43, Suppl., 823-833, 1991. | JGG_1991.pdf |
| ISO SOLAR IRRADIANCE DRAFT STANDARD 21348 | |||
| Space Weather Management | Management of space weather and ISO standards | Tobiska, W.K., International Standards Will Enhance Space Weather Management, Space Weather, 6, S06001, doi:10.1029/2008SW000410 |
Space_Weather_Manag.pdf |
| ISO CD 21348 | ISO 21348 standard for solar irradiances. | Space environment (natural and artificial) - Process for determining solar irradiances | ISO_DIS _21348_E_revB.pdf |
| CommentsDIS21348 | Solar irradiance standard comment sheet. | ISO/DIS21348 | CommentsDIS21348-3.pdf |
| 2004 Status of ISO DIS 21348 | Progress overview of the solar irradiances standard ISO 21348. 2004 COSPAR meeting in Paris, France.This is the recommended publication for the most recent DIS 21348 overview. | Tobiska, W.K. and A.A. Nusinov, "Status of ISO Draft International Standard for Determining Solar Irradiances (DIS 21348)," Adv. Space Res., submitted, 2004. | C01_0014_04.pdf |
| 2002 Status of ISO CD 21348 | Progress overview of the solar irradiances standard ISO 21348. Presented at 2002 COSPAR in Houston, TX | Tobiska, W. K. and A. A. Nusinov, "Status of the ISO draft standard for determining solar irradiances," Adv. Space Research, submitted, 2002. | ASR_C0-1_ 0009_02.pdf |
| 1999 Status of ISO CD 21348 | Progress overview of the solar irradiances standard ISO 21348. Presented at the 1999 TIGER meeting in St. Petersburg, Russia. | Tobiska, W. K. and A. A. Nusinov, "Status of the draft ISO solar irradiance standard," Phys. Chem. Earth, 25 (5-6), 387-388, 2000. | TIGER_ISO _status.pdf |
| AERONOMY AND PLANETARY SCIENCE | |||
| January World Day campaign aeronomy study | A study of the thermosphere and ionosphere for solar minimum winter conditions. | Hagan, M.E., C.A. Barth, W.K. Tobiska, A.H. Manson, R.A. Vincent, M.J. Buonsanto, R.G. Burnside, and V.B. Wickwar, "Observations of upper atmospheric weather during solar minimum winter," J. Geophys. Res., 97 (A4), 4163-4176, 1992. | JGR_1992.pdf |
| FUV auroral imaging | Analysis of E-2 payload on rocket during Energy Budget Campaign (1980) | Tobiska, W.K., G.R.Gladstone, S. Chakrabarti, M.G. Shepard, J.C. McConnell,R. Link, G. Schmidtke, and G. Stasek, "FUV-visible photometric imaging of aurorae," J. Geophys. Res., 98 (A10), 17,525-17,535, 1993. | JGR_1993b.pdf |
| Interplanetary Lyman-alpha study | Studies of interplanetary Lyman-alpha over solar cycles 21-22 from Pioneer Venus | Pryor, W.R., S.J. Lasica, A.I.F. Stewart, D.T. Hall, S. Lineaweaver, W.B. Colwell, J.M. Ajello, O.R. White, and W.K. Tobiska, "Interplanetary Lyman-alpha observations from Pioneer Venus over a solar cycle from 1978 to 1992," J. Geophys. Res., 103 (A11), 26833-26849, 1998. | JGR_1998.pdf |
| Galileo hydrogen study | Model of interplanetary hydrogen with Galileo UVS measurements. | Pryor, W., I. Stewart, K. Simmons, M. Witte, J. Ajello, K. Toskiba, D. McComas, and D. Hall, "Remote Sensing of H from Ulysses and Galileo," Space Sci Rev., 97, 393-399, 2001. | SSR_2001.pdf |
| SERF2 flux for aeronomy campaign | An overview study of modeled solar flux using SERF2 during an aeronomy campaign. | Tobiska, W.K., "Modeled solar EUV flux during the Equinox Transition Study: September 17-24, 1984," J. Geophys. Res., 94 (A12), 17017-17020, 1989. | JGR_1989.pdf |
| SPACE SYSTEMS | |||
| High latitude density enhancements | Semi-empirical model of polar cusps | Moe, K. and M.M. Moe, "The high-latitude thermospheric mass density anomaly: A historical review and a semi-empirical model," J. Atm. Solar Terr. Phys., 70, 794-802, 2008 | JASTP_Moe_2008.pdf |
| Magnetosphere coupling with thermosphere | Sedona AAS Conference 2007 | Moe, K. and M. Moe, "Thermospheric density model including magnetospheric energy sources at quiet times," AAS 07-188, 2007. | AAS_07-188.pdf |
| Satellite and debris decay | Orange County AIAA Conference | Moe, K., "Progress in predicting the decay of satellite and debris orbits," Third Annual AIAA Southern California Aerospace Systems and Technology Conference, April 2006. | AIAA-OC_ASAT_2006.pdf |
| Oribital Predictions | Stochastic Models of the Errors in Orbial Predictions | Moe, K., "Stochastic Models of the Errors in Orbial Predictions for Artificial Earth Satellites", ARS, 1962 | ARS_1962.pdf |
| Orbital Predictions | Errors in Orbital Predictions for Satellites | Moe, K., "Errors in Orbital Predictions for Meteorological and Geodetic Satellites, J. Geophys. Res., 68, (17),1963 | JGR_Vol68_1963.pdf |
| SET TECHNICAL REPORTS | |||
| Low Latitude Hydrogen Emission at Jupiter | The first analysis of Galileo’s low/mid latitude H Lyman-a data, which contains new information about the link between Jupiter’s upper atmosphere, the magnetosphere, the dynamic lower atmosphere, and the Sun. | Tobiska, W. Kent, Space Environment Technologies , Pryor, Wayne R., Space Environment Technologies, Gladstone, G. Randy, Southwest Research Institute Simmons, Karen E., Laboratory for Atmospheric and Space Physics, "Low Latitude Hydrogen Emission at Jupiter", SET Technical Report, August 2007 | SET_TR2007-001 |
| A Data Conversion Subsystem | A Master of ScienceThesis Presented to The Department of Computer Engineering San Jose State University | Zegwaard, Paulus, "A Data Conversion Subsystem for an Ionospheric Forecast System," San Jose State University, December 2004 | SET_TR2006-001 |
| GOES Measurements of Solar 0.1-0.8 X-ray Flux | A description of the GOES satellite measurements of solar X-ray flux and the derivation of the Minimum Daily Background Index and Flare Index | Bouwer, S. Dave, "A Summary of SOLAR 0.1-0.8nm X-ray Measurements From the GOES Satellies,1986-2004", Internal SET report, 2006 | SET_TR2006-002 |
Additional ISO Solar Irradiance Standard documents are available through the SpaceWx ISO link.
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